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🏛️ Politics
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#42301
🎯 One of 3 candidates in the same event.
This market trades and resolves entirely on its own -- buying Yes here pays out only if
this specific outcome happens, regardless of what happens to the others. Prices across
the 3 candidates are not required to add up to 100% --
each one is priced independently, the same way Kalshi/Polymarket's own multi-candidate events work.
See all 3 candidates »
Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2027?
31.00Ᵽ
seed price — no trades yet
Call Yes
25.00Ᵽ – 29.00Ᵽ
Call No
71.00Ᵽ – 75.00Ᵽ
📡 Polymarket: 26%
Two different numbers on purpose: Polymarket's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.
25.00Ᵽ best bid · 29.00Ᵽ best ask
🔵 On Polymarket (at import): $53,732 volume
Price history
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Polymarket (indicative)
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Resolution
- Source
- Polymarket (via UMA optimistic oracle) ✓ Verified source
- Event cutoff
- Rules
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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