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🏛️ Politics
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#42368
🎯 One of 8 candidates in the same event.
This market trades and resolves entirely on its own -- buying Yes here pays out only if
this specific outcome happens, regardless of what happens to the others. Prices across
the 8 candidates are not required to add up to 100% --
each one is priced independently, the same way Kalshi/Polymarket's own multi-candidate events work.
See all 8 candidates »
NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?
23.50Ᵽ
seed price — no trades yet
Call Yes
6.50Ᵽ – 10.50Ᵽ
Call No
89.50Ᵽ – 93.50Ᵽ
📡 Polymarket: 8%
Two different numbers on purpose: Polymarket's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.
6.50Ᵽ best bid · 10.50Ᵽ best ask
🔵 On Polymarket (at import): $6,337 volume
Price history
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Polymarket (indicative)
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Resolution
- Source
- Polymarket (via UMA optimistic oracle) ✓ Verified source
- Event cutoff
- Rules
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify.
Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage.
Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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