Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 10 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

📡 Kalshi: 97%
Two different numbers on purpose: Kalshi's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.

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Source

Kalshi ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

Dec. 15, 2026, 2:59 p.m. UTC

Rules

If the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate is at least 10 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.

A district's 2024 margin is Donald Trump's share of the 2024 presidential vote in that district minus Kamala Harris's share, as calculated by The Downballot in its 2024 presidential results by congressional district table, for the district boundaries in use at the 2026 elections, as shown in the table to one decimal place (the table lists Democratic minus Republican, so reverse its sign). Those margins are fixed as of Issuance and identified by state and district number, so later boundary changes and revisions to the table do NOT change them. The margin is negative where Harris won.

A district counts only if the candidate elected there at the November 3, 2026 general election, for the term beginning January 3, 2027, is listed on the ballot as a Democrat (including Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party), including as preferring the Democratic Party where a state uses an open, top-two or top-four ballot. If a runoff is required to determine the winner of any race, the runoff result governs. Independent and third-party winners do NOT count, even if they caucus with Democrats.