Will Vermont have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?

📡 Kalshi: 5%
Two different numbers on purpose: Kalshi's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.

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Source

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Event cutoff

Jan. 20, 2027, 4:59 a.m. UTC

Rules

If Vermont has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No.