Will Big box credit card spend array index for October 2026 be above 94?

📡 Kalshi: 87%
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Source

Kalshi ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

Nov. 5, 2026, 4:59 a.m. UTC

Rules

If the Carbon Arc Big box credit card spend array index (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 94, then the market resolves to Yes.

For purposes of this market, determination will resolve on the Carbon Arc Big Box Array value for the full month covered by this market, as recorded by Kalshi at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 4th calendar day after the end of that month. For example, the value for August is recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on September 4. Later corrections or revisions will not affect the recorded value.

The reference is Carbon Arc's published full-month Big Box Array level: https://www.carbonarc.co/prisms?prism=e7120baa-c555-4766-b1b7-99012347c8cd&entity=Big+Box. The underlying metric is credit card spend. The array is the equally weighted arithmetic mean of its constituent year-over-year indices. At listing, its members are Walmart Inc., Target, Best Buy Co, Costco Wholesale Corporation, each weighted 1/4. Each constituent index is 100 when its measured credit card spend equals the same month of the previous year; the array averages these indices. An array level of 103 means the constituents' average year-over-year growth is 3%, and 97 means their average decline is 3%.

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