Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

38.50Ᵽ

seed price — no trades yet

Call Yes

35.50Ᵽ – 39.50Ᵽ

Call No

60.50Ᵽ – 64.50Ᵽ

📡 Polymarket: 8%
Two different numbers on purpose: Polymarket's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.

35.50Ᵽ best bid · 39.50Ᵽ best ask

🔵 On Polymarket (at import): $177,334 volume

💰 20.00 contract(s) resting 👁 3 views ⚡ Instant liquidity via Quick Bet

Price history

This platform Polymarket (indicative)

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Polymarket's price is shown for reference only -- this platform's own order book sets its own price, and the two can diverge.

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Bids

10.00 35.50Ᵽ Log in

Call No 10.00 @ 64.50Ᵽ · if correct: +355.00Ᵽ · if wrong: −645.00Ᵽ

Asks

10.00 39.50Ᵽ Log in

Call Yes 10.00 @ 39.50Ᵽ · if correct: +605.00Ᵽ · if wrong: −395.00Ᵽ

Pick 1 (barely) to 5 (strongly) -- a pure sentiment vote, not a trade, not tied to credits.

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Source: Polymarket (via UMA optimistic oracle) ✓ Verified source
Event cutoff: Dec. 31, 2026, 7:59 p.m. UTC
Rules: On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.

Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.

This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.