OPEC dissolves in 2026?

📡 Polymarket: 2%
Two different numbers on purpose: Polymarket's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.

1.15Ᵽ best bid · 5.15Ᵽ best ask

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Source

Polymarket (via UMA optimistic oracle) ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

Jan. 1, 2027, 4:59 a.m. UTC

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:

- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.

- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.

- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.

An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.