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🏛️ Politics
General
#4320
🎯 One of 19 candidates in the same event.
This market trades and resolves entirely on its own -- buying Yes here pays out only if
this specific outcome happens, regardless of what happens to the others. Prices across
the 19 candidates are not required to add up to 100% --
each one is priced independently, the same way Kalshi/Polymarket's own multi-candidate events work.
See all 19 candidates »
Will Barack Obama be arrested before 2027?
2.35Ᵽ
seed price — no trades yet
Call Yes
1.00Ᵽ – 4.35Ᵽ
Call No
95.65Ᵽ – 99.00Ᵽ
📡 Polymarket: 2%
Two different numbers on purpose: Polymarket's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.
1.00Ᵽ best bid · 4.35Ᵽ best ask
🔵 On Polymarket (at import): $29,427 volume
Price history
This platform
Polymarket (indicative)
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Order book
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Resolution
- Source
- Polymarket (via UMA optimistic oracle) ✓ Verified source
- Event cutoff
- Rules
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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