Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 4AM ET on Nov 4, 2026?

📡 Kalshi: 80%
Two different numbers on purpose: Kalshi's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.

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Source

Kalshi ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

Nov. 4, 2026, 9 a.m. UTC

Rules

If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. House majority before 4AM ET on Nov 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The call must be an explicit declaration that a candidate, party, or option has won, will win, is projected to win, or equivalent clear language indicating the outlet has determined the winner. The call must appear on one of the outlet's primary platforms (main website, television broadcast, or official social media if that is their primary medium) and not be prefaced with qualifiers suggesting uncertainty such as "appears to," "likely to," "probably," or "may have." The relevant time is when the call first becomes publicly visible on the outlet's platform, not when it may have been written, decided internally, or prepared for publication. If the call is later retracted, the market nonetheless resolves to Yes based on the initial call time. Preliminary exit polls, reporting of other outlets' calls, conditional statements, opinion pieces, and technical glitches do not qualify as definitive calls.