Will the European Central Bank Hike 1-25bps at the December ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?

📡 Kalshi: 83%
Two different numbers on purpose: Kalshi's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.

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Source

Kalshi ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

Dec. 17, 2026, 1:14 p.m. UTC

Rules

If the European Central Bank takes the action of Hike 1-25bps at December ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).