Will Streaming app downloads array index for October 2026 be above 105?

📡 Kalshi: 2%
Two different numbers on purpose: Kalshi's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.

Log in to trade this market.

Order book

How much do you disagree with this price?

Pick 1 (barely) to 5 (strongly) -- a pure sentiment vote, not a trade, not tied to credits.

Log in to add your own rating.

No one's rated this yet -- be the first.

Source

Kalshi ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

Nov. 8, 2026, 4:59 a.m. UTC

Rules

If the Carbon Arc Streaming app downloads array index (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 105, then the market resolves to Yes.

For purposes of this market, determination will resolve on the Carbon Arc Streaming Apps Array value for the full month covered by this market, as recorded by Kalshi at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 7th calendar day after the end of that month. For example, the value for August is recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on September 7th. Later corrections or revisions will not affect the recorded value.

The reference is Carbon Arc's published full-month Streaming Apps Array level: https://www.carbonarc.co/prisms?prism=4a5e14d8-0a48-449b-9733-5fadf6a45851&entity=Streaming+Apps. The underlying metric is app downloads. The array is the equally weighted arithmetic mean of its constituent year-over-year indices. At listing, its members are Netflix, Hulu: Stream shows & movies, Disney+, Paramount+, Peacock TV: Stream TV & Movies, Max: Stream HBO, TV, & Movies, ESPN: Live Sports & Scores, each weighted 1/7. Each constituent index is 100 when its measured app downloads equals the same month of the previous year; the array averages these indices. An array level of 103 means the constituents' average year-over-year growth is 3%, and 97 means their average decline is 3%.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying companies. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.