Will there be a year with zero wild polio cases before 2030?

📡 Kalshi: 5%
Two different numbers on purpose: Kalshi's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.

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Source

Kalshi ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

Jan. 1, 2030, 3 p.m.

Rules

If there is any year between 2024 and 2029 in which there are zero reported wild cases of poliovirus 1, then the market resolves to Yes.