US defaults on debt by 2027?

📡 Polymarket: 2%
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Source

Polymarket (via UMA optimistic oracle) ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

Dec. 31, 2026, midnight UTC

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.