Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026?

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Source

Polymarket (via UMA optimistic oracle) ✓ Verified source

Event cutoff

April 1, 2026, 3:59 a.m.

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

Appeal this resolution

Think “Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026?” resolved No incorrectly? 0 appeals filed so far — window closes Sept. 13, 2026, 7:53 p.m.. This doesn't decide anything by itself; staff review every appeal.

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