Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?

13.10Ᵽ

seed price — no trades yet

Call Yes

1.00Ᵽ – 4.60Ᵽ

Call No

95.40Ᵽ – 99.00Ᵽ

📡 Polymarket: 3%
Two different numbers on purpose: Polymarket's is the outside reference, Profet's is what actually moves credits here.

1.00Ᵽ best bid · 4.60Ᵽ best ask

🔵 On Polymarket (at import): $19,160 volume

💰 20.00 contract(s) resting 👁 3 views ⚡ Instant liquidity via Quick Bet

Text-matched by question similarity, not confirmed — check before treating this as a real discrepancy.

Will there be an at least 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027? Kalshi: 5% · 2.45Ᵽ apart

Price history

This platform Polymarket (indicative)

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Polymarket's price is shown for reference only -- this platform's own order book sets its own price, and the two can diverge.

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Bids

10.00 1.00Ᵽ Log in

Call No 10.00 @ 99.00Ᵽ · if correct: +10.00Ᵽ · if wrong: −990.00Ᵽ

Asks

10.00 4.60Ᵽ Log in

Call Yes 10.00 @ 4.60Ᵽ · if correct: +954.00Ᵽ · if wrong: −46.00Ᵽ

Pick 1 (barely) to 5 (strongly) -- a pure sentiment vote, not a trade, not tied to credits.

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Source: Polymarket (via UMA optimistic oracle) ✓ Verified source
Event cutoff: Jan. 1, 2027, 4:59 a.m. UTC
Rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).

For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.